China’s role as a key exporter in the global fertilizer market is gradually decreasing, driven by domestic policy priorities focused on supply security and farmer affordability. This transition may impact fertilizer prices and farmers' affordability across key markets, including Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, and Oceania.
China has been one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of fertilizers, particularly phosphates and nitrogen-based products. In 2025, the value of its fertilizer exports exceeded $13 billion.
Tightening Export Restrictions
Since mid-March, China has introduced export limitations through the China Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine (CIQ) system, affecting phosphates and most nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea.
These measures aim to ensure sufficient domestic supply during peak agricultural demand, reinforcing China’s “domestic-first” fertilizer strategy amid ongoing global supply constraints.
In parallel, fertilizer volumes have been released from national reserves to stabilize prices and support farmers. Export activity—particularly for nitrogen fertilizers—is expected to gradually resume after the planting season concludes in May.
Impact of Rising Sulfur Costs
Sulfur is a critical input in fertilizer production, particularly for phosphates. While historically mined, most sulfur today is derived from crude oil and natural gas processing. Rising sulfur prices have significantly increased production costs in China, contributing to reduced phosphate output. In turn, the Chinese authorities have banned phosphate exports until August this year.
This trend has been further exacerbated by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 44% of the global sulfur trade. As a result, China—being highly sensitive to imported sulfur costs—faces increasing constraints. The resumption of phosphate exports will largely depend on the stabilization of sulfur prices. Since tensions escalated in late February, export supply has become increasingly constrained.
Urea Market Dynamics
China’s export availability of urea—the most widely traded nitrogen fertilizer essential for plant growth—has declined due to strong domestic demand. Industry experts do not expect exports to resume before May, creating additional pressure for importing countries.
This situation is further compounded by disruptions in the Arab Gulf, which accounts for approximately 35% of global urea trade, according to FertiStream’s market intelligence.
In the coming months, China is expected to remain a key urea exporter, although its role will continue to be shaped primarily by domestic priorities.
