Market participants across the fertilizer value chain are expressing renewed optimism for the months ahead, with prices expected to remain firm across most key nutrients. This sentiment was widely shared among industry stakeholders attending the Argus Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) Conference, held in Miami from 26 to 28 January 2026, one of the most important annual gatherings for the Latin American fertilizer market.
In discussions during the conference, market participants expressed bullish sentiment across all three key N, P, and K nutrients for the next two to three months, particularly for phosphates and nitrogen products. This broadly aligned positive outlook contrasts with the usual divergence in views observed in past conferences.
Milton Sato, Head of Global Market Intelligence at FertiStream, who participated in discussions with several traders and buyers, shared the key takeaways shaping the current market perspective.
Phosphates supported by higher sulfur prices
Higher sulfur prices continue to support phosphate markets, directly impacting production margins for MAP, DAP, and, in particular, SSP producers. Market attention remains focused on Mosaic’s company decision, the world's largest combined producer of concentrated phosphate and potash, to extend the idling of two SSP plants in Brazil for an additional 30 days. Supply constraints have also been reinforced by adverse weather conditions that have affected Morocco’s OCP loadings in January, while the US market entered the season with below-normal inventories.
China’s export policy remains a key variable
China’s export policy for urea and phosphates remains a key price driver. Sulfur prices have risen sharply year-on-year, significantly increasing production costs. In response, Chinese authorities have imposed a ban on MAP, DAP, and NP exports until August 2026. However, many market participants expect the decision to be reviewed once domestic demand subsides in April, potentially allowing exports to resume from May or June. Such a shift would have significant implications, particularly for major import markets such as India and Brazil, where Chinese products have previously provided important alternatives when supplies of other grades were tight.
Firm sentiment in urea markets
Urea markets also remain firm, supported by expectations of an upcoming Indian tender that could absorb March and possibly early April shipments. In Europe, higher CBAM-related costs for UAN and CAN are expected to encourage urea imports due to relatively lower carbon charges. Despite ongoing uncertainty around CBAM implementation, traders anticipate renewed purchasing activity as pre-CBAM inventories are gradually depleted ahead of the spring application season. Meanwhile, Egyptian urea prices continued rising during the conference as traders built long positions, while geopolitical tensions in the Arab Gulf also raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Potash remains competitively priced
In potash markets, buyers noted that MOP remains the most affordable nutrient relative to urea and phosphates. Additionally, shipments from the Belarusian supplier BPC to the US may resume in the coming months as sanctions ease, creating an additional outlet and potentially easing supply pressures in other destinations.
Despite improving sentiment, challenges persist. Grain-to-fertilizer price ratios remain difficult in several regions, particularly affecting demand for nitrogen and phosphates, while credit constraints continue to affect parts of the Brazilian market. Nevertheless, conference participants generally expect positive market drivers to outweigh risks in the near term.
