2025 was another demanding year for the fertilizer industry, marked by shifting trade flows, policy influence, price volatility, and ongoing affordability challenges for farmers. Despite this backdrop, FertiStream delivered all commitments and strengthened its position, selling around 10.7 Mt (+8% YoY). CEO Stepan Yashin shares what made it possible.
Stepan, looking back at 2025, which factors had the greatest impact on the global fertilizer market?
2025 once again confirmed that fertilizers differ from most commodities: this is not one global market, but a series of regional ones. They remain only partially linked by trade flows, while prices are primarily defined by local climate conditions, farmer behavior, and policy dynamics.
If I had to name the biggest drivers, I’d group them into four buckets.
First: affordability and farmer behaviour.
Grain prices weakened, with corn falling by around 15% YoY, while fertilizer prices did not “adjust neatly” in parallel. This made purchasing tactical: shorter cover, waiting, substitution. Brazil is the clearest example: urea imports fell by 0.6 Mt YoY due to substitution by AS (+1.6 Mt YoY). MAP faced competition from Chinese NP. The market punished anyone who assumed demand would behave as in comfortable years.
Second: policy and trade-flow management.
a. China remained a key swing factor: export controls on nitrogen and phosphates affected markets not only through volumes, but also through timing and signaling. At the same time, strong potash demand combined with low inventories pushed many buyers to secure 2026 contracts earlier than usual, supporting prices.
b. India’s tender rhythm continued to anchor the nitrogen market. Stronger-than-normal monsoon rains (about +8%) drove record farmer demand, with India influencing over 17% of global seaborne trade.
c. In the US, reciprocal tariffs introduced in 2025 reduced urea and phosphate imports, pushing inventories to low levels by late autumn. Together, these forces created a stop‑start market rhythm
Third: input cost shocks: with sulphur being the clearest example.
In Brazil, sulphur’s share in MAP cost peaked at 40–45%, effectively steering product economics, margins, downstream behaviour, and even operating decisions. Expectations that it will normalize closer to ~30% in 2026 are already shaping planning across the phosphate chain.
Fourth: freight and execution reality.
In 2025, the difference between a “good trade” and a “bad trade” was often not the headline price, but execution: the ability to deliver on time, ensure compliance, and avoid last-minute surprises. Logistics moved from a back-office function to a full market driver.
Practically speaking, you could be right on macro fundamentals and still lose money if execution was slow, or freight and risk controls lacked discipline.
Many traders came under severe stress as geopolitical uncertainty increased. What specific challenges has FertiStream faced?
For traders, 2025 stress-tested every part of the model: pricing, logistics, financing, and especially adaptability. What worked was disciplined risk-taking combined with strong execution: not just trading price, but solving problems end-to-end.
Our biggest challenge was simple: remain profitable without gambling and remain reliable without becoming rigid.
• In urea, volatility made positional trading expensive, so we reduced exposure and avoided “hero calls,” protecting returns while staying reliable for clients.
• In phosphates, the year split in two: a strong H1 with 1.0+ Mt sold in Brazil alone, then rapidly thinning liquidity from August; diversification helped sustain activity.
• In potash, we sold full volumes while keeping prices stable.
• We also continued moving into higher‑standard segments that, while smaller in volume, deliver stronger and more predictable margins. In 2025, we introduced water‑soluble fertilizers to our portfolio: and saw fast uptake in Turkey, India, and North Africa.
Overall, 2025 was about staying active while controlling downside. In turbulent years, people remember who delivers calmly and consistently.
Looking back, how has 2025 shaped up for FertiStream?
In 2025 we evolved significantly: the market demanded maturity. What started in 2023 as a lean trading entity has, by the end of 2025, become a global commercial platform with full strategic and operational capability.
After selling 9.8 million tons in 2024, we deliberately shifted focus from rapid expansion to efficiency. We closed 2025 with around 10.7 Mt sold, while improving average gross margin per ton by ~15% and reducing OPEX by ~18%, a strong outcome given market conditions and our strict risk discipline.
Geographically, we refined footprint: reinforcing Africa, continuing to build China office, maintaining steady growth in Brazil. 2025 helped us clearly define priority regions and operating models: fewer distractions, deeper partnerships.
We also completed the build-out of our trading backbone:
• Trade finance: we strengthened our financing structure, expanded cooperation with external partners, and ensured that good trade ideas are not constrained by balance-sheet friction.
• Organization: we underwent a major transformation, refreshed key leadership roles, and became roughly 25% leaner year-on-year. It wasn’t comfortable, but it was necessary. As a result, the team is now more focused, energized, and better equipped for the next stage.
• Governance and risk: we refined policies to ensure consistency while reducing bureaucracy, unified IT systems, automated core processes. We have real-time visibility into performance and risk, and a clear understanding of what comes from market access versus disciplined risk-taking.
Brazil accounted for around 35% of FertiStream’ s sales in 2025. Why did this market take the lead?
Brazil is amazing! Brazil is the world’s largest and one of the fastest-growing fertilizer markets. Agriculture continues to expand and intensify: over the past decade the planted area increased by around 26.6 million hectares, while average yields rose by ~1.8% in winter corn and ~1.7% in soybeans. Intensive farming structurally supports fertilizer demand, which has grown at ~4.8% annually over the last 10 years.
Brazil is as demanding as it is attractive. Clients expect rapid response to shifts in buying behaviour and agility in navigating logistics constraints. Success requires deep understanding how demand behaves at distributor and farm level.
Our strength lies in the combination of a strong local team and a centrally coordinated operating model. Our São Paulo hub is staffed with highly experienced commercial and operations professionals working with 50+ partners, relationships built on trust and proven performance. At the same time, global product managers oversee portfolios, ensuring one strategy, risk language, one execution standard.
This structure, local intimacy combined with disciplined oversight from Dubai, has proven extremely robust. The team delivered top-quartile trading margins in 2025. The next ambition is to extend this approach to neighboring regions.
What strategic priorities do you see for 2026? Do you have a sales volume target for next year?
We are not chasing a “hero volume” target. The intention is to stay close to 2025 and grow selectively: where economics are defensible and execution remains disciplined.
In terms of the 2026 backdrop, several forces matter.
• Supply additions. Market has to absorb new volumes. Supply is expected to increase by 5+ Mt across nutrients with new capacity in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Russia, and Central Asia.
• Crop economics. Major crop prices are likely to remain near five-year lows, meaning affordability will stay constrained. Clients will demand flexibility: smaller parcels, delayed payments, multi-product structures, and substitution.
• Policy and geopolitics. CBAM enters into force in the EU. In the US, removal of reciprocal tariffs increases import alternatives for urea and, to a lesser extent, phosphates. Potash markets are influenced by the lifting of US sanctions on Belarus product. At the same time, geopolitical volatility will continue to shape freight, insurance, and shipping corridors: freight remains a strategic variable, not background noise.
In short, 2026 is not about chasing ego volume, but building durable advantage. So, our priorities are practical:
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Expand commercial strategies: further develop trade finance, product swaps, structured contracts, and risk-sharing mechanisms. Stronger collaboration with key suppliers and clients means clearer pricing logic, better service levels, and more repeatable value.
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Operational excellence: scale AI across deal screening, risk and compliance, analytics, to increase speed, discipline, and resilience.
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People development: continue investing in the team, especially specialist capabilities: because execution ultimately depends on judgment, accountability, and experience.
In trading companies, does the human factor still dominate, or is automation taking over?
The human factor remains decisive, and it always will.
Fertilizer trading is still a people-driven business: high-value transactions, a supply chain that isn’t fully digitized, and risks spread across ports, banks, regulators, and counterparties. That’s why trust, reputation, and reliability matter as much as price.
At the same time, automation and AI are now essential. Winners are not those who simply have tools, but those who truly embed them into decision-making: so people can focus on judgment, relationships, and execution.
Simply put: people win deals; automation prevents dumb losses.
What ultimately sets FertiStream for success?
We operate in a market where success depends on three things: understanding regional demand, managing execution risk, and making fast, disciplined commercial decisions. Our strengths align closely with that.
• Diversification with agility. We operate globally, across multiple channels and products, giving broad market visibility and resilience. We’re not locked into legacy positions and can pivot flows to the value.
• Execution standard. In 2025 the team consistently delivered across different markets and conditions. In volatile environments, clients don’t only buy price: they buy reliability, clarity, and problem-solving.
• Operating tempo. We are built to be lean, fast, and precise: one team, one discipline, one execution standard. In 2025, that pace mattered as much as strategy.
Ultimately this reflects culture: ownership, precision, and unity. People at FertiStream take responsibility, challenge when needed, and execute with pride.
You spent nearly a decade at McKinsey. Which parts of that experience have been most valuable as a CEO?
Several, which are quite universal:
• First, focus on people — both clients and your own team.
• Second, discipline in defining the real problem before solving it.
• Third, consistency and work ethic.
And one more: clarity. In turbulent years, outperforming requires simplifying the signal, making a call, and aligning people to move fast. 2025 tested clarity almost weekly.
