The Argus Fertilizer China Conference, held from 3–4 November 2025 in Shanghai, is one of the leading international events in the fertilizer industry, connecting the Chinese fertilizer market with key global stakeholders and decision-makers across the value chain.
FertiStream’s Head of Global Market Intelligence, Milton Sato, who took part in this major global event, highlighted the following key trends shaping the industry:
• CBAM Implementation: The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to commence as planned in January 2026, according to EU officials. However, the key default values by producer — required for importers to calculate CBAM carbon costs — have not yet been published. This uncertainty may delay importer decisions until Q2 2026, when confirmed data becomes available.
• Chinese Export Policy: China’s fertilizer export policy naturally took center stage in discussions with urea and phosphate export quotas expected to start from April 2026. The overall quota system will likely remain the same, given its success in keeping domestic prices low by offering producers and distributors a way to increase revenues through controlled export pace.
• Phosphate Market Pressures: Local producers and distributors remain concerned about the rising costs of sulfur and ammonia in recent quarters. For instance, Chinese sulfur prices exceeded $400/t in October, up $250/t year-on-year. Unplanned disruptions to Russian production, coupled with firm demand from Indonesian nickel processors, lend support to prices.
• New Product Development: Chinese producers and traders are testing NK 42-0-5, a new fertilizer grade designed primarily for the Brazilian market. Produced from urea and MOP, this grade aims to avoid the strict urea export quotas. Just like a whack-a-mole game, should this export flow gain steam, expect the Chinese government to intervene with potential export controls, as has been the case with other fertilizers.
• China–Brazil Market Link: The strong connection between Chinese and Brazilian markets continues. Out of 104 Mt of soybean exports in 2025, 87.2 Mt will go to China, accounting for a 79% market share. Brazil aims to expand corn and soybean production by 90 Mt by 2032, which will drive fertilizer consumption up to 56 Mt, an 8 Mt increase. Consequently, Brazil’s fertilizer imports are projected to reach 53 Mt by 2032, up 9 Mt from today. Chinese fertilizer exports to Brazil, already at 9 Mt, are poised to grow further, following a 5.7 Mt increase in loadings over the past five years.
