The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) World Fertilizer Conference, held from 15–17 September 2025 in Chicago, is one of the industry’s most prominent and influential events, bringing together major stakeholders to discuss the key drivers of fertilizer prices and trade in the coming months.
Throughout the conference, a wide range of critical topics were addressed. Milton Sato, FertiStream Head of Global Market Intelligence, shared perspectives on the key trends shaping global fertilizer markets, noting that discussions highlighted particular concern over developments in the U.S. and Brazilian markets, ongoing uncertainties surrounding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and recent changes in China’s export policy.
North America: The US Outlook
One of the main topics discussed was the contradictory tariff policy pursued by the U.S. authorities. Many participants expressed frustration over the lack of a clear direction regarding U.S. tariffs on fertilizer imports.
For example, a major U.S. fertilizer producer noted that the government may eventually reduce import tariffs on fertilizers from Arab Gulf countries, which could alter the price dynamics importers face when competing for cargoes across different destinations. The key takeaway is that importers are likely to remain cautious, avoiding new commitments to prevent potential losses amid possible abrupt policy changes — particularly as the U.S. government continues to offer little clarity.
In terms of domestic fertilizer consumption, U.S. farmers are expecting a sizable corn planting area next season. Although not anticipated to reach record-high levels, returns on corn currently look more attractive than those on soybeans. However, due to weak export demand from China, farmers’ final decisions on whether to shift more acreage to corn production will likely be made only by mid-2026.
At the same time, strong corn planting intentions are expected to support fertilizer demand, especially for nitrogen-based products — including ammonia, UAN, and urea — which remain critical to U.S. crop production.
South America: Brazil Dynamics
In Brazil, importers and suppliers centered their discussions on two key market dynamics. The first concerns the sharp increase in Chinese ammonium sulfate (amsul) imports, which rose by 1.9 Mt year-to-date to 4.9 Mt, effectively displacing urea as the main nitrogen source. Over the same period, urea imports declined by 900 Kt to 3.7 Mt. Chinese amsul exports to Brazil have expanded rapidly in recent years and are now on track to reach 21 Mt in 2025, up 25% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total amsul imports are expected to reach 7.5 Mt, an increase of 2.3 Mt compared with the previous year.
Farmers have been eager to adopt amsul as a cheaper nitrogen source, shifting away from urea. As a result, amsul has become the reference point for nitrogen value in Brazil, further eroding urea’s market dominance.
The second key dynamic is the notable surge in low-concentration phosphate imports from China, particularly 8(N)-40(P) and SSP grades. These products are projected to rise by 1.7 Mt to 5.1 Mt, as suppliers have priced them aggressively, leading to a decline in MAP imports — expected to fall by 800 Kt to 3.1 Mt. Consequently, MAP is now viewed as part of the “overpriced” category, struggling to compete with more affordable and readily available alternatives.
Europe: CBAM Uncertainty
Several key stakeholders shared their perspectives on the upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), scheduled for implementation in January 2026. A major concern among market participants operating in Europe is that Brussels has not yet specified the exact carbon cost that each supplier will incur once CBAM comes into effect.
The European Commission has yet to define the “rules of the game” for the program, and without this clarity, buyers and sellers remain unable to calculate import replacement costs, creating uncertainty and constraining trade.
China: Export Policy Evaluation
During the conference, importers, distributors, traders, and producers discussed China’s strict export policy and the recently introduced quota system for urea and phosphate. Implemented by Beijing in late 2023 and extended into 2024, these measures aim to secure domestic supply and stabilize local prices.
Traders were particularly focused on whether China will issue additional urea export quotas ahead of the upcoming Indian tender, and if phosphate shipments will continue through November–December — or whether a complete export halt will be enforced by the end of October.
